CHAPTER 5 : INFLATION
Introduction Inflation refers to an economic situation where the demand for goods and services in the economy is continuously increasing without corresponding increase in supply which pushes the general prices up. The opposite of inflation is called deflation. Inflation is measured by considering the Consumer Price Index (C.P.I) which involves comparison of prices of certain goods and services for two different periods. In constructing the C.P.I; A basket of commodities is selected which includes selecting the generally consumed commodities by average consumers. Choosing the base period which should be a period when the prices were fairly stable. The price of commodities both in the current period (P1) and base period (P2) Consumer Price Index (C.P.I)= × 100 Types and causes of inflation Inflation is classified in relation to its causes. Demand pull inflation This is a type of inflation caused by excessive demand for goods and services without a corresponding increase in production resulting into rise in prices. Causes of demand pull inflation Increase in population.;Increased number of people in a family calls for increased demand of goods and services thus fueling demand-pull inflation. Increase in government expenditure;The government expenditure has the effect of making money available to people thus increasing the aggregate demand for goods and services. A fall in the level of savings; This increases the consumer expenditure on goods and services which brings pressure on the available goods and services thereby pulling up prices. Effects of credit creation by the commercial banks; When banks lend more money to the public, their purchasing power increases hence increasing demand which in turn leads to increase in the prices. Consumers’ expectation of future price increases; When consumers expect the prices of goods and services to increase in the future, they will buy more in the present thus increasing the demand thus fueling demand-pull inflation. General shortages of goods and services; Any shortage in goods caused by factors such as; adverse climatic conditions, hoarding, smuggling, withdrawal of firms from the industry and decline in level of technology calls for scramble for the available goods thus increasing their demand and prices. \ Cost push inflation This is a type of inflation caused by increase in cost of factors of production which translates to increased prices of goods and services. Causes of cost push inflation. Increase in wages and salaries; An increase in the wages and salaries may increase the cost of labour. The increased cost of labour may be reflected in the increased prices of commodities which in turn would cause wage push inflation. Increase in cost of raw materials and other inputs; This increases the cost of production thus increased prices. Increase in indirect taxes; This increases the cost of production and this causes firms to raise the prices of their product. Increase in profit margin; If the business decides to raise its profit, it leads to an increase in the price of the commodities resulting to profit push inflation. Reduction in subsidies; removal of a subsidy implies that the producer would produce at a higher cost that was being met by the subsidy. This increase cost is finally reflected in increased prices. Imported inflation This is a type of inflation which is caused by importation of high priced inputs of production such as; technology/machines, skilled human resources and crude oil. This in turn increases the prices of locally produced goods which may lead to inflation. Causes of imported inflation Importation of expensive technology especially highly skilled labour. Importation of expensive machines and equipment. Importation of high priced oil. The currency depreciating thus increasing the price of the country’s imports. LEVELS OF INFLATION Mild / Creeping/Moderate Inflation This a slow rise in price level of not more than 5 % per annum. It is associated with some beneficial effects on an economy especially to firms and debtors. Galloping /Rapid Inflation This is a very rapid accelerating inflation characterized by a situation whereby the general prices levels increase rapidly. Stagflation; This is an economic condition in which unemployment is high, the economy is stagnant, but prices are rising. Hyper /Runway Inflation; This is when prices are rising at double or triple digit rates of 20%, 100%, 200%. The price levels are extremely high and under this situation people may lose confidence in the money as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. EFFECTS OF INFLATION IN AN ECONOMY positive effects of inflation Mild inflation motivates people to work hard as they try to cope with the effects of the inflation in order to maintain their standards of living. Mild inflation encourages proper utilization of resources with an attempt of avoiding wastage as much as possible. Mild inflation increases investment especially in trading activities since sellers buy goods when prices are low and sell later when prices are higher. It promotes creativity in an economy in terms of production in order to survive the effects of inflation. It benefits debtors since they obtain goods on credit and pay for them in future at the old low prices. Negative effects It leads to reduction in profits as sales volumes reduce since inflation reduces the purchasing power of consumers resulting to low sales. It wastes time as a lot of time is wasted in shopping around for reasonable prices and also firms may waste a lot of time adjusting their price lists to reflect new prices. It leads to conflicts between employers and employees as firms are pressurized by employees and trade unions to raise wages and salaries to cope with inflation. It leads to loss by creditors as they lend money when the value of money is high but at the time of payment is low since the value of money will have been eroded by inflation. It leads to decline in standards of living as consumers’ purchasing power decrease and therefore one can not lead the lifestyle he/she used to live before. Leads to unemployment. Discourages savings and investment since during inflation people tend to
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